While Captain America: Brave New World is projected to retain the top spot on the box office charts in its second weekend, the film is also estimated to see a substantial decline in ticket sales. According to Deadline, the Marvel blockbuster is poised to gross around $30+ million domestically this weekend, a significant drop from the $100 million debut it scored over the four-day Presidents’ Day weekend. That figure is in the same ballpark as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania‘s second weekend gross of $31.9 million. Back in 2023, Ant-Man 3 opened with $120.3 million during the Presidents’ Day window.
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This weekend’s high-profile new arrival, Stephen King adaptation The Monkey, is projected to get off to a strong start. Estimates point to the horror film grossing about $17 million domestically in its first three days, which would already exceed the project’s $10-11 million production budget.
Captain America: Brave New World was always predicted to post the best box office opening of the year so far, but its commercial projections weren’t as rosy when compared to other Marvel titles. The film grossed around $12 million from preview screenings that took place on Thursday, February 13, a figure lower than Ant-Man 3‘s $17.5 million.
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The word of mouth didn’t do Brave New World any favors. Heading into its premiere, the film scored mixed reviews; its 49% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes is one of the lowest ratings in MCU history. Brave New World also struggled to impress general audiences, “earning” the worst CinemaScore for an MCU movie (B-). Despite featuring some entertaining performances from Anthony Mackie and Harrison Ford, many took issue with the film’s storytelling as it attempted to juggle various plot threads and operate as a compelling political thriller.
Like most blockbusters, Marvel movies tend to be front-loaded, meaning they see solid business on the opening weekend before there’s a decline. As a new tentpole opens, the die-hard fans rush out to see it, and then hype dies down. However, the studios typically hope for stronger holds than what Brave New World is projected for. Going from $100 million over four days to about $30 million over three is a significant drop, illustrating the film has not generated much enthusiasm amongst viewers. Brave New World is not facing any direct competition for its target demographic over the next few weeks, and it seems unlikely it will have substantial legs at the box office. The only positive here is that Brave New World cost “only” $180 million to make, so it should still turn a profit.
Entering a critical year, this likely isn’t the start the MCU was hoping for in 2025. It will be interesting to see how Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps perform when they open over the summer. The latter in particular seems to have captured audiences’ attention, as the teaser trailer netted over 200 million views in its first 24 hours. Hopefully, those films are well-received hits reminiscent of Marvel’s glory days, setting the stage for an explosive finale to the Multiverse Saga. With the exception of Deadpool & Wolverine, Marvel’s been struggling lately, and it needs a return to form soon.
