Disney’s Sequel to $1Bn Animated Hit Breaks a 6-Year Box Office Record (& It’s Huge for Hollywood’s Future)

The box office got a much-needed boost this past weekend with the record-breaking debut of Wicked: For Good, and the good times should continue to roll over the Thanksgiving frame. This week sees the release of the anticipated Disney sequel Zootopia 2, which is expected to have a massive opening of its own. At the domestic box office, Zootopia 2 should post one of the biggest debuts of the year, as early estimates have it pegged for $125+ million over its first five days. The animated film should also be a sizable draw overseas; it’s one of the few titles left on the 2025 calendar that has a realistic shot at grossing $1 billion worldwide. Based on a record Zootopia 2 just broke, its odds of hitting that milestone just went up.

Box office analysts on X, such as Luiz Fernando and @meJat32, have noted that Zootopia 2 has set a new mark in China, scoring the biggest pre-sales of any Hollywood movie released in the post-pandemic era. It has earned $34.3 million from early sales, topping the previous record held by F9 ($30.1 million). If things break right, Zootopia 2 could be looking at around a $200 million opening just in China alone, which would be a fantastic development for the film industry.

Zootopia 2 Could Signal a Comeback for the Chinese Box Office

In the pre-COVID times, China emerged as a very important market for Hollywood studios. One of the reasons why there were so many $1 billion movies in the 2010s (including nine in 2019 alone) is because so many American blockbusters found an audience in China. For instance, Avengers: Endgame grossed a whopping $632.1 million, a figure that would have been more than enough to be the second-highest-grossing film domestically in 2019. Other Hollywood hits didn’t come close to Endgame numbers (understandably), but still fared extremely well; The Lion King earned $120.4 million, Spider-Man: Far From Home made $198.9 million, and Captain Marvel brought in $154 million.

Over the past handful of years, Hollywood movies haven’t been as fortunate in China. While there are some that have performed very well (Avatar: The Way of Water, $245.9 million), the numbers show studios can’t rely on Chinese grosses anymore to bolster worldwide numbers. This year, Captain America: Brave New World earned only $14.3 million in China, a far cry from Captain America: Civil War‘s $180.7 million. Thunderbolts* didn’t perform much better, making just $16 million. Grosses more in line with pre-2020 levels would have elevated both of these Marvel movies from box office disappointments to modest hits, painting the ongoing performance of the Multiverse Saga in a different light.

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There are other reasons why traditional studio tentpoles have been underperforming at the box office as of late (shifting audience tastes, mixed critical/audience reception, shortened theatrical windows and the rise of streaming), but the decline of the Chinese box office has been one of the most prevalent. As theaters continue to recover from the effects of the pandemic, China emerging as a reliable source of income again would be great news. We may never see a year like 2019 again (nine $1 billion movies is an unsustainable pace), but a strong showing in China could be the difference between losing money and turning a solid profit. Franchises like Marvel, DC, and Star Wars aren’t going to slow down any time soon, and while studios have strategies in place to (hopefully) maximize box office numbers, knowing they can count on China would be a boon.

It will be interesting to see if Zootopia 2 marks a return to the old normal or is just an exception to the new rules. The first Zootopia was a hit in China, earning $236 million lifetime, so it isn’t surprising to see the sequel is projected to be an even bigger hit. The real test for Chinese box office viability will come as more blockbusters arrive on the scene. Avatar: Fire and Ash should be a big draw in the country, and then there are plenty of highly anticipated 2026 tentpoles that will go a long way in determining if the Chinese box office really is back. If the crop of sci-fi and superhero movies find an audience in the country, the film industry will be in great shape.

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