Mandalorian and Grogu’s Box Office Projections Still Low After Mixed Reviews (But There’s Hope)

Now that The Mandalorian and Grogu has made its way to theaters, it’s about to face arguably its biggest test yet: the box office. As the first new Star Wars movie in seven years, a case can be made there’s a decent amount riding on it. The Mandalorian and Grogu kicks off a new era for the galaxy far, far away on the big screen, and if Lucasfilm wants to keep making more Star Wars films for the foreseeable future (there are several in various stages of development), the studio needs to start churning out hits at the multiplex again. Unfortunately, The Mandalorian and Grogu is projected to have the lowest opening in Star Wars’ Disney era, but there’s reason to be more optimistic about its prospects.

According to The Hollywood Reporter, The Mandalorian and Grogu is estimated to earn about $82 million domestically over the four-day Memorial Day holiday weekend. Globally, the debut is projected to be around $160 million. These figures, which come in the wake of The Mandalorian and Grogu earning mixed reviews, aren’t much different from the tracking that came out a little over a month ago. However, there’s a chance the film could exceed expectations.

A Key Moviegoing Demographic Can Help The Mandalorian and Grogu at the Box Office

The Hollywood Reporter piece includes a quote from an unnamed “Hollywood financier” who mentions that families can give The Mandalorian and Grogu a needed boost at the box office. “The film’s fate will also hinge on whether it draws in the family audience. We expect that demographic to turn out,” the financier said. “If they do not, the grosses will be lower than our predictions.” Though it’s rated PG-13 (like many major live-action franchise tentpoles these days), the presence of the adorable Grogu, who has been a merchandising juggernaut since his debut in 2019, makes The Mandalorian and Grogu a family friendly film. Star Wars fans of all ages love Grogu, but he appeals the most to kids.

There’s a good chance families do show up. The Mandalorian and Grogu is the first wide new theatrical release targeting that demo since The Super Mario Galaxy Movie in early April. With Mario now out on home media and no other high-profile genre titles opening this weekend, The Mandalorian and Grogu shouldn’t face much competition during the holiday frame. Holdovers like Michael and The Devil Wears Prada 2 are counterprogramming for other target audiences, not direct threats to Mandalorian and Grogu. The Star Wars film should also benefit from its premium-format screenings, as fans will be interested in seeing it in IMAX theaters.

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Word of mouth can play a role in box office performance; Project Hail Mary broke records because it received widespread acclaim. With that in mind, one might think The Mandalorian and Grogu could be hamstrung by its lukewarm critical reception. Its Rotten Tomatoes score is one of the lowest in Star Wars’ history, but that may not be too much of a factor here. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie earned mixed reviews of its own and was a success. Family films have a tendency to be critic-proof because the target audience (kids) isn’t paying attention to word of mouth and review scores. If parents feel like their children will have fun watching The Mandalorian and Grogu, they’ll go to the theater.

It’s worth pointing out that there’s some tracking that has a more optimistic outlook on The Mandalorian and Grogu. THR mentions “some exhibitors” see it earning somewhere in the range of $95-100 million domestically, so we’ll have to wait and see. Box office projections are not an exact science, with several variables making opening weekends difficult to accurately predict. Regardless of how The Mandalorian and Grogu fares in its debut, Lucasfilm shouldn’t have to worry about another Star Wars bomb. The film was budgeted at just $165 million, so it doesn’t have to rewrite the box office history books to turn a profit.

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