First projections for Star Wars‘ next movie, The Mandalorian and Grogu, are that the film will open to a disappointing box office record. It’s been seven years since the last Star Wars movie, with the franchise essentially relegated to streaming since then. That’s soon to change, though, with The Mandalorian and Grogu bringing Star Wars back to theaters on May 22. The movie is essentially replacing The Mandalorian Season 4, but nobody is quite sure what to expect in terms of performance.
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Now, Box Office Theory has released an initial prediction for The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s opening weekend. They’re expecting the film to have an opening three-day weekend of just $71 million, which would make it the worst in the Disney era – below even Solo: A Star Wars Story, which opened to $84.4 million and became the first Star Wars bomb. They expect Pedro Pascal and Grogu to be major draws, along with a return to practical effects, but also note that streaming-to-big-screen transitions for franchises like Marvel and Pixar have seen disappointing returns.
The Mandalorian and Grogu’s Box Office Isn’t a Disaster for Disney
Naturally, the main takeaway online is surely going to be the comparison with Solo. There are disturbing similarities between the two films, both of which featured lackluster marketing; The Mandalorian and Grogu‘s most recent trailer was excellent, but the first landed poorly, and a strange Super Bowl promo failed to move the needle. But the comparisons aren’t really fare, because the upcoming film’s budget is substantially lower than Solo‘s, meaning it doesn’t really need to make as much of a profit.
According to the California Film Commission, the movie has a budget of just $166 million. The reality will be higher – post-production costs won’t be incurred in California, likely associated with locations like Canada, Australia, and Ireland. Still, The Mandalorian and Grogu is set to be the cheapest Star Wars movie ever made. That sets it up to be a very different proposition, because it feels more like a made-for-streaming movie with a box office profit attached.
Viewed from this lens, The Mandalorian and Grogu actually feels like something of a safe bet for Disney. It won’t be the blockbuster hit of the year; opening weekend is tracking below even Project Hail Mary, and it’s unlikely to have that film’s legs. But it will safely recoup its costs, and then will surely go on to become a success for Disney+. That budget is roughly similar to a season of The Mandalorian, meaning this approach makes a lot of sense for Lucasfilm and Disney.
That does, however, mean The Mandalorian and Grogu won’t really be the Star Wars revival the fandom is longing for. That will likely have to wait until next year’s Star Wars: Starfighter, which will release as part of Star Wars’ 50th anniversary celebrations – and accompanied by a rerelease of the original Star Wars film, before Lucas even branded it “Episode IV.” While The Mandalorian and Grogu may not quite be Star Wars’ new hope, it will certainly make a profit, and that will make it a success.
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