Snow White Reboot Opening Weekend Projections Drop Even Lower

The latest box office projections for Disney’s upcoming live-action Snow White remake are lower than the initial estimates that came out earlier this month. According to updated tracking data shared by The Hollywood Reporter, the film is currently poised to gross somewhere in the range between $48-58 million domestically during its opening weekend. Right now, $53 million is seen as the “target number.” This is a fairly notable drop from the first projections, which had Snow White pegged for a debut between $63-70 million.

Even the low end of this range would eclipse the $35.4 million domestic opening of Mufasa: The Lion King. Still, Snow White would be trailing the debuts of a majority of Disney’s live-action remakes. Four of those titles opened with over $100 million domestically (The Lion King holds the record with a $191.7 million debut), and a couple others (Aladdin, The Little Mermaid) grossed over $90 million in their openings. There’s also a sizable gap between Snow White and the likes of Cinderella ($67.8 million) and Maleficent ($69.4 million).

Snow White is scheduled to open in theaters on March 21st. The film reportedly sports a production budget of $240 million, making it one of the most expensive Disney live-action remakes. During the build-up to its release, Snow White has been a lightning rod for controversy, as elements such as Rachel Zegler’s casting to the portrayal of the dwarves have generated backlash. The mixed word of mouth could be impacting the box office tracking.

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Disney revved up the Snow White marketing machine by unveiling a new trailer and the original song “Waiting on a Wish” back in December. It was not one of the movies Disney promoted at the Super Bowl earlier this month, but the expectation is marketing for the film will kick into high gear soon now that there are just a few weeks left before its release.

After Captain America: Brave New World got off to a rocky start at the box office (dropping 68% in its second weekend), this projected debut would be another disappointing development for Disney. Snow White is opening well before the rush of the summer movie season and isn’t facing much competition for its target demographic during its run, so the studio was probably hoping for stronger estimates at this juncture. There is a chance the Snow White projections could improve (especially if the reviews are positive), but it doesn’t look like it will break any records. That the estimates already dropped by this much is not a great sign for the movie.

It is worth keeping in mind that Mufasa posted what was a disastrous debut before it rebounded and ended its theatrical run with over $700 million worldwide (despite having mixed reviews of its own). Theoretically, Snow White could follow a similar trajectory and end up doing well for itself even if it doesn’t rush out to a strong start. April doesn’t have too many high-profile titles of note (one exception is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which is targeting a different audience), so Snow White has a nice runway where it could enjoy a fruitful run. It will be interesting to see how it ends up performing in theaters.