Despite not even being announced yet, many are already playing the speculation game of when the PlayStation 5 will release.
Earlier this week, a new report emerged claiming that Sony's new console could launch as early as this year. In other words, we could get the PS5 in 2018. However, this sounds far to outrageously close to be the case. And it likely isn't.
Whether accurate or not, the report opened the can of worms regarding the PS5, and as you know, once you open a can, you can't close it.
That said, Wedbush Securities -- and notable industry -- analyst Michael Pachter has come out and essentially squashed the few remaining hopes that Sony are poised to drop a hardware-sized bomb this year.
According to Pachter, a release later this year for the PS5 is very unlikely, or in his words of “very low probability.” Rather, Pachter speculates and believes that Sony's next console will most likely ship sometime in 2020. However, he also doesn't rule out the possibility that it will release a year prior, in 2019.
“25% [probability] next year and 75% in 2020,” said the analyst.
The gap between the first PlayStation and the PlayStation 2 was notably a little over five years. Meanwhile, the gap between the between the PS2 and PlayStation 3 was roughly six years. And then the gap between the PS3 and the PlayStation 4 was seven years.
Now, a release in 2018 would create a five year gap, which seems unlikely. Meanwhile, 2020 would be in-line with the most previous console gap. However, 2019 would get back to the pre-PS3 ways. So who knows. Both 2019 and 2020 sound completely plausible, but 2018 sounds very, very unlikely.
Personally, if I was a betting man, I would place my chips on 2020. This would provide a nice four-year cushion between the release of PS4 Pro and PS5, as well as offer Sony plenty of marketing time if they choose to reveal in 2018 or 2019. Plus, 2020 is a rad year, and is right around PlayStation's 25-year anniversary.
As always, all of this should be treated as mere and pure speculation. Until Sony announces – or even confirms the PS5's existence – it's likely best to not get too attached to any hypothetical release window.