Still nearly a month from release, Todd Phillips' Joker has been making a splash with critics. It's debuted with an outstanding 88 percent Fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes and many critics have gone on record calling it a "masterpiece." By now, it's probably safe to say Warner Brothers isn't worried in the slightest about the box office performance of the upcoming comic book film.
In fact, one leading box office analyst suggests the film could end up going down as a record-setting film when it comes to R-rated movies. In a new long-range tracking report on Box Office Pro, analyst Shawn Robbins says it's looking increasingly favorable Joker crests $100 million during its opening weekend on its a way to a new October high. The current October record (for any rating) currently belongs to Sony's Venom, which made $80.3m in its opening weekend.
"Online chatter is embracing the hype, and our metrics now point to this clearly being the “water cooler” type of movie that inspires interest from a variety of demographics — not unlike another creepy clown movie from Warner Bros. in September 2017," Robbins says of the potential Joker performance. "We remain cautious in expectations for staying power as the R-rated film is likely to be divisive among general audiences, but odds at becoming the first-ever $100 million+ opener in October history look increasingly favorable."
Though it's still too far out to get a super accurate opening weekend projection, Robbins forecasts the movie will open at $103m, a whopping $20m ahead of the current Venom record. Furthermore, the box office numbers maestro thinks the Joaquin Phoenix-starring film has the potential of grossing over $210m in its domestic haul. Should that be the case, Joker would end up almost breaking into the Top 15 highest-earning R-rated films to ever hit the box office, sandwiched right between 300 ($210.61m) and Wedding Crashers ($209.26m).
Using that same total, Joker would barely squeeze into the top ten chart of films based on DC Comics properties. As it stands now, Batman Begins is currently tenth with a domestic tally of $206.85m. Zack Snyder's Justice League is ninth with $229.02m, a substantial amount ahead of the current tracking.
Joker is set for release October 4th. Other upcoming DC movies include Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) on February 7, 2020, Wonder Woman 1984 on June 5, 2020, The Batman on June 25, 2021, The Suicide Squad on August 6, 2021, and Aquaman 2on December 16, 2022.