Taylor Swift’s Eras Concert Movie Might Be in Trouble According to New Report

Taylor Swift’s The Eras Tour movie is poised to make theaters shimmer when it opens on October 13th with the film having already earned more than $65 million in advanced ticket sales and a projected opening weekend haul of more than $100 million, but a new report is questioning that, when it comes to the theatrical debut of the biggest concert of the summer, non-Swifties may not be ready for it. A new report from The Quorum suggests that The Eras Tour movie may not attract non-fan moviegoers once it arrives in October.

According to the report — which is based on their own polling about interest in seeing the film — about half of the people polled haven’t seen Swift in concert and have no interest in seeing it. When they broke things down further, by asking the same group if they wanted to see the film version of the concert in theaters, they came up with an overall interest level of 39 percent and that the bulk of the interest in seeing The Eras Tour film lies with Swift fans who have either attended the concert or wanted to but were unable to. The report says that the date suggests that the film is “unlikely to attract an audience beyond her fans”.

However, the poll and its data may not tell the full story. As the report does not, it’s difficult to compare The Eras Tour movie to historical data because there’s nothing else like it — this is a film with no “comps”. It’s not a standard theatrical film and there aren’t exactly previous concert films that comparing The Eras Tour to would make sense — either their scope is different or they were released too long ago to have a similar moviegoing climate. In a very real sense, The Eras Tour is unlike anything that’s come before it, which would influence its overall box office performance.

Does The Eras Tour Audience Segment Even Matter?

The report also asks the question of whether the audience segment for The Eras Tour actually matters or not — and it just might not. While the data suggests that the film has the biggest appeal among a very specific segment of moviegoers, so called “micro segments” can still propel films into being wildly successful and if the general behavior of Swifties is taken into consideration, that may very well be the case. Fans of Swift have already been going out of their way to attend as many dates of the tour as possible — at a much higher price point than the film’s $19.89 per adult ticket. Even with the possibility that the theatrical release may have a very narrow appeal, those same fans are very likely to attend repeated showings of the movie.

This is especially true given the film’s timing. The film opens in theaters two weeks ahead of the release of Swift’s next re-recorded album, the highly anticipated 1989 (Taylor’s Version). Anticipation of that album’s release might also be enough to encourage fans to attend repeat viewings and should there be a surprise announcement at the end of the film about the re-recording of Swift’s Reputation album — post-credits scene style — as some fans are speculating, that also may turn into a repeat viewing driver or even be an attraction to bring other viewers to theaters. Add to that that given the borderline hysteria that surrounds almost every announcement from Swift among her fanbase, it’s likely that we won’t even begin to see true data on word of mouth or walk-up business for the film until well after its first week of release because Swifties have been selling out showtimes.

What Is The Eras Tour Movie About?

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour will be a filmed version of Swift’s landmark Eras Tour, which completed its first U.S. leg in August. Filmed across three nights of shows in Los Angeles’ Sofi Stadium, the film will showcase Swift’s performance of songs from all ten of her albums — Taylor Swift, Fearless, Speak Now, Red, 1989, reputation, Lover, folklore, evermore, and Midnights. In celebration of the movie’s release, AMC upgraded its ticket-booking capacity by five times to account for fan demand. It also priced standard adult tickets at $19.89 — a reference to the year Swift was born, as well as her fifth album 1989 — with children’s and senior tickets at $13.13, which is a reference to Swift’s lucky number.

“The Eras Tour has been the most meaningful, electric experience of my life so far and I’m overjoyed to tell you that it’ll be coming to the big screen soon,” Swift wrote when announcing the film on social media. “Starting Oct 13th you’ll be able to experience the concert film in theaters in North America! …Eras attire, friendship bracelets, singing and dancing encouraged 1, 2, 3 LGB!!!! (iykyk)”

Taylor Swift | The Eras Tour is set to be released exclusively in theaters on Friday, October 13th.