Snow White’s Disappointing Box Office Opening Could Match Dumbo

Disney’s live-action Snow White remake is projected to easily win the box office during its opening weekend, but the film is off to a rough start. According to Deadline, Snow White is estimated to earn around $45 million domestically over its first three days; while that figure is higher than last December’s Mufasa: The Lion King ($35.4 million), Snow White is poised to open in the same ballpark as 2019’s Dumbo ($45.9 million), which is considered a misfire. Snow White significantly trails Cinderella ($67.8 million) and Maleficent ($69.4 million), and is nowhere close to massive Disney live-action hits like The Lion King ($191.7 million) and Beauty and the Beast ($174.7 million).

Rounding out the rest of the top five this weekend should be Steven Soderbergh’s spy thriller Black Bag ($4.3 million), Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World ($4.3 million), action film Novocaine ($3.8 million), and Bong Joon-ho’s sci-fi satire Mickey 17 ($3.8 million). This week’s other high-profile new release, the Robert De Niro vehicle The Alto Knights, has struggled mightily and is projected to come in sixth with $3 million.

Embroiled in numerous controversies, Snow White was never pegged to break box office records. In the month leading up to its release, tracking declined. Back in February, it was estimated it would bring in around $48-58 million domestically. Word of mouth didn’t do Snow White any favors; while the film has its fair share of fans (despite the strange CGI dwarves), it largely earned mixed reviews and currently has a 44% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes.

[RELATED – Disney’s Snow White Reviews: Grumpy Critics Aren’t Bashful About Sleepy Remake]

Snow White‘s opening weekend might have been looked at more favorably if it wasn’t such a pricey investment for the studio. The movie is one of the most-expensive Disney live-action remakes, boasting a production budget in excess of $250 million (before marketing costs). That means Snow White needs to post a healthy worldwide gross in order to turn a profit.

Especially on the heels of Captain America: Brave New World‘s disappointing box office run, Disney was hoping for a stronger debut for Snow White. It was not facing any real competition for its target demographic and arguably should have been able to stand out more in an underwhelming marketplace. However, since there aren’t any major studio tentpoles on the horizon over the next few weeks, Snow White might be able to pull a Mufasa and rebound. After coming up short in its pre-Christmas debut, the Lion King prequel finished with $717.2 million worldwide. How well Snow White holds in its second weekend will go a long way in determining its ultimate box office fate. If it sees a sharp decline like Brave New World, this could go down as a loss.

Even if Snow White can’t reverse its fortunes, Disney still has plenty to look forward to later in the year, with Thunderbolts*, Elio, and The Fantastic Four: First Steps all set for the busy summer movie season. With any luck, the early part of 2025 will go down as a blip on the radar for the studio, and Disney’s box office numbers will see a resurgence when we get to May. The Mouse House has another live-action remake coming out soon in Lilo & Stitch, which looks like it might be a more fruitful endeavor as well.