Earlier this year, Amazon scored a massive win at the box office when Project Hail Mary posted a record-breaking debut. For a studio looking to make a name for itself in the theatrical landscape, it was an important development, proving that Amazon was more than capable of distributing a hit blockbuster. As the summer movie season rolls on, Amazon is hoping for another victory in the form of Masters of the Universe. The reboot of the classic 1980s IP has benefited from positive word of mouth ahead of its release, but it looks like the film has its work cut out for it at the box office. Masters of the Universe is poised to lag behind the competition.
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According to Variety, Masters of the Universe is projected to earn between $30-35 million domestically during its opening weekend. Even the high end of those estimates would be well short of the tracking for fellow new arrival Scary Movie ($45-50 million) and the second weekend for indie horror Backrooms ($48-50 million). Compared to other big-budget genre films, Masters of the Universe isn’t in the same ballpark as The Mandalorian and Grogu ($81.6 million) or Project Hail Mary ($80.5 million), and trails Mortal Kombat II ($38.5 million).
Can Masters of the Universe Exceed Box Office Projections?
Of course, box office projections are not an exact science. There’s always a chance that a film could perform better than expected. We saw an example of that just a week ago with Backrooms, which was estimated to debut in the neighborhood of $40+ million and skyrocketed past that. Even The Mandalorian and Grogu, which has underwhelmed at this point in its run, beat out the estimates. Heading into its debut, the Star Wars movie was on track to earn $82 million over the four-day Memorial Day weekend, but it actually grossed $98 million during that frame. So, movies exceeding expectations have become common recently, especially since it’s trickier to get a read on things in the post-pandemic landscape.
If Masters of the Universe is to become the latest in this line, it’ll need a couple of things to go in its favor. For starters, word of mouth could play a key role here. In order to exceed initial expectations, a movie needs to be well-received so it appeals beyond its core target demographic. On this front, Masters of the Universe seems to be in solid shape. Social media reactions hailed it as a fun fantasy film bolstered by entertaining performances and set pieces. The Rotten Tomatoes score is a Certified Fresh mark of 76%, so those who were on the fence could be inclined to see Masters of the Universe on the big screen.
Additionally, Masters of the Universe recently received a boon in the form of a last-minute IMAX release. With The Mandalorian and Grogu struggling to attract large crowds, IMAX made the decision to swap the Star Wars movie for Masters of the Universe. Premium large formats are more popular than ever these days, becoming cinephiles’ preferred way to watch the big-budget genre tentpoles. IMAX ticket sales typically account for a considerable portion of opening weekend grosses, so that could be a boost for Masters of the Universe.
Amazon is certainly hoping that Masters of the Universe can find a way to exceed expectations. Unlike Project Hail Mary, which is a standalone work, Masters of the Universe could be the beginning of a new franchise. The creative team already has plans for sequels, but those will only come to fruition if the first movie is a considerable hit. Masters of the Universe was budgeted somewhere between $170-200 million, so a $35 million opening would not be ideal (particularly because June is only going to get more crowded as the month goes on).
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