Once the undisputed king of the box office, Disney has had a fairly rough year at the multiplex in 2025. While Lilo & Stitch was a much-needed $1 billion hit this summer, a number of the Mouse House’s titles have underperformed, including Captain America: Brave New World, Thunderbolts*, and Elio. Even The Fantastic Four: First Steps was a softer draw than expected at $519.2 million worldwide. Disney has some intriguing prospects on the horizon in the form of Zootopia 2 and Avatar: Fire and Ash, but before that, the studio will be looking to make a splash with Tron: Ares in October. Early box office projections for that sci-fi film are now in.
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According to Deadline, Tron: Ares is estimated to earn approximately $44 million domestically in its opening weekend. That figure is virtually identical to what 2010’s Tron: Legacy earned in its debut (a little over $44 million), which means Ares could tie its predecessor for the biggest box office opening in the franchise. The original Tron, which was released back in 1982, opened with $4.7 million domestically.
Could Tron: Ares Exceed Box Office Projections?
A lot of films this year have surpassed the initial estimates and performed better than expected in their opening weekends. The crop of lucrative horror movies are perhaps the most notable examples, but some traditional studio tentpoles have pulled this off as well. Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps rode positive reviews and audience word of mouth to post strong openings. This trend illustrates how tricky it can be to predict the box office in the post-pandemic landscape, when moviegoing habits have changed. Nobody saw The Conjuring: Last Rites shattering box office records.
Tron: Ares has a chance of joining that group of over-performers, especially if reviews for it are generally positive. For starters, it won’t be facing much in the way of direct competition as it opens. It’s a big-budget studio tentpole opening in the early days of fall, a time when most studios put out their awards contenders. By the time Tron: Ares arrives in theaters, the high-profile holdovers will be titles like One Battle After Another and The Smashing Machine, which aren’t targeting Tron‘s core demographic of sci-fi fans. Additionally, Tron: Ares will be playing in premium formats, which could give its box office prospects a boost.
The Tron franchise also has a passionate following. Tron: Legacy had an uneven run at the box office, bringing in just $409.9 million worldwide against an $170 million budget (one of the reasons why a third film in the series languished in development hell), but in the years since, it’s become a cult fan favorite. Plus, the timing arguably couldn’t be better for a new Tron film, given the sizable presence technology and AI have in our daily lives. Tron: Ares‘ subject matter could strike a chord with general audiences, making it a bigger hit than anticipated.
Disney has done its part to raise awareness for Tron: Ares, putting together a Hall H panel at Comic-Con this year and releasing several previews that highlight the franchise’s enduring legacy and Ares‘ relevant themes. It’s been a while since there was a major, spectacle-driven genre film playing in theaters, so perhaps Tron: Ares will be able to deliver a visually stunning experience that entertains and provides intriguing food for thought. If it checks those boxes, then maybe it can surge past Legacy and rewrite the Tron box office record books.
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Image Courtesy of Marvel Comics
