Ordinarily, a movie grossing over $1.4 billion at the worldwide box office would not be a disappointing result, but Avatar is no ordinary franchise. From the beginning, James Cameron’s sci-fi epic has been one of one both in terms of technical innovation and commercial performance. Of the seven films to earn over $2 billion globally, two are the first two Avatar films (with the 2009 original ranking as the highest-grossing film of all time). As such, expectations for Avatar: Fire and Ash were sky high when the threequel arrived last December. Many were curious to see if it could continue the $2 billion streak.
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Of course, Fire and Ash fell well short of that figure, and though it ended its run as the third-highest-grossing film of 2025 (behind only Zootopia 2 and Ne Zha 2), there could be big changes in store for the Avatar franchise. Producer Rae Sanchini recently said “we’re full speed ahead” regarding the fourth and fifth films, but those next installments could look quite different. Reports state conversations have been had about making the next Avatar films “cheaper and shorter.” While that makes sense from a business perspective, it also misses the entire point of what makes the Avatar franchise so special.
Avatar Is a One-of-a-Kind Cinematic Event
There will always be debates about the storytelling in the Avatar movies and the franchise’s cultural footprint, but one thing that’s undeniable is that these films are genuine events made for the biggest of screens. In an era when movie theaters have more competition for attention than ever, Avatar illustrates why people should still come out to the multiplex. Even with modern big-screen TVs and home theater systems, it’s impossible to replicate the experience of watching an Avatar movie at the theater in your living room. IMAX 3D gives it an edge that makes going to the theater a necessity.
While there are loyal Avatar fans who sing the praises of some of the memorable characters Cameron has created, the franchise’s main selling point is the spectacle. People have come out in droves to see these films in theaters (the franchise collectively has earned over $6.7 billion worldwide) because they’re unlike anything we’ve seen from a technical filmmaking perspective. Cameron has always been a director interested in pushing the envelope, and he’s gone so far as to invent new technology to complete the Avatar films. Even if viewers aren’t full invested in the narrative being told, they’re interested in watching the visual splendor unfold. Cameron is a master of staging exciting sci-fi action sequences, and with all of the tools and resources he has at his disposal, the set pieces in Avatar are breathtaking.
The problem is that these films aren’t cheap to make. Including the money set aside for marketing, Avatar: Fire and Ash was a $500 million investment for Disney. Signing a check for that amount is tenable when it results in $2.3 billion at the box office (which was the case for Avatar: The Way of Water), but it becomes less so when the endgame is $1.4 billion. All of a sudden, there are questions wondering if that gargantuan investment was worthwhile, which is how we get to people having conversations about whether or not the next Avatar films can be made for a cheaper amount of money.
Logistically, that desire makes sense. A smaller budget means a film has a greater chance to turn a profit since the break even point is lower. The counterpoint is what kind of domino effect would that have on Avatar 4‘s production values. If the main selling point of your sci-fi film franchise is one-of-a-kind spectacle, it arguably doesn’t make much sense to put less money in a sequel, potentially short-changing the visual effects and/or technical innovations. The inherent risk is Avatar 4 looking like any other standard Hollywood blockbuster, which ruins what makes Avatar special. It stands out because it isn’t like any other standard Hollywood blockbuster (from a filmmaking perspective, at least). These are films that demand exorbitantly expensive budgets because of all the work that goes into them, particularly the extensive post-production.
Can Disney Solve Its Avatar Problem?
For his part, Cameron seems aware that the current Avatar business model isn’t sustainable. Leading up to the premiere of Fire and Ash, he noted that he could put Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 on hold for a while as he figures out a more efficient process to make them. Technology is always evolving, so perhaps things could become more streamlined in the not too distant future, which could be a way of scaling back production costs without sacrificing anything on the screen. Always a perfectionist, Cameron isn’t going to settle for less just to get his last two Avatar sequels made. If he feels confident with new methods, fans can rest assured knowing Avatar 4 would look as amazing as ever.
Targeting shorter run times might also be a viable strategy. If Avatar 4 was shorter, then the film conceivably wouldn’t be as expensive to make because there’d be less work to do to complete the movie. The trick here would be finding a run time that’s just right. The franchise has always been a sweeping epic, with its rich mythology, action-packed battle sequences, and heavy thematic material. Your mileage may vary on how effective the narratives are, but the stories have always been designed to be told on large canvases. A 90-minute Avatar film doesn’t seem right, but something in the range of two to two and a half hours could work. Fire and Ash was virtually 200 minutes long, a significant increase from the original’s 162 minutes. Scaling back on the run time would also have the added benefit of allowing theaters to book additional screenings daily, boosting box office numbers.
Release dates are something else to keep in mind. As of this writing, Avatar 4 and Avatar 5 are scheduled to premiere in 2029 and 2031, but those windows are “tentative” for the time being. An extended hiatus may actually do the Avatar franchise some good. The Way of Water likely benefited from the large gap between it and the 2009 original. Returning to Pandora felt exciting and new again because so much time had passed, and The Way of Water earned over $2 billion. Fire and Ash arrived three years later, and there were diminishing returns. People may need more time to miss Avatar before seeing it again. Cameron will continue to search for ways to make the filmmaking process more efficient, but a case can be made things could relatively stay the same if the release dates are pushed back, giving Cameron and his team more time to iron out the scripts and react to fan feedback.
If all parties involved can agree on solutions to these issues, then Cameron should definitely move forward with Avatar 4 and Avatar 5. Even with Fire and Ash marking a low point for the series (critically and commercially), $1.4 billion is still nothing to sneeze at in the current moviegoing landscape. There’s still a large enough overall interest in Avatar to make future movies worthwhile. The problem is that there are no real easy solutions at the present moment, so if those “cheaper and shorter” conversations don’t bear any fruit, then perhaps it would be better if Fire and Ash became the last Avatar movie. That would be an anticlimactic end for one of the biggest franchises in history, but it’d arguably be wiser to not make Avatar 4 and 5 than strip them of what makes Avatar, well, Avatar.
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Image courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
