After seven years, The Mandalorian and Grogu has brought Star Wars back to the big screen. According to Christopher Nolan, Hollywood is entering a “post-franchise” age. Given that’s the case, Star Wars Easter eggs aren’t really driving the debate online anymore; rather, when it comes to The Mandalorian and Grogu, the discourse seems to be about the box office. Headlines are eagerly comparing it to other Star Wars movies (and sometimes completely different franchises that don’t draw in the same demographics), all trying to frame and reframe the debate.
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There’s a reason, of course. Star Wars has been in quite a rough spot over the last few years; Lucasfilm struggled to figure out a new theatrical direction after 2019’s The Rise of Skywalker, with the franchise relegated to the small screen. The Star Wars TV shows have released to mixed success, with the fandom left particularly divided after the cancellation of The Acolyte. Discourse has become the name of the game, especially for YouTubers, and The Mandalorian and Grogu has performed just well enough to keep everybody arguing about it. But how’s it really doing?
The Mandalorian and Grogu’s Box Office Explained
Per Variety, The Mandalorian and Grogu opened to a $100 million Memorial Day weekend in the domestic box office, slightly behind a predicted $102 million. It also collected a softer $63 million internationally, and overall performance is directly comparable to the $168 million worldwide gross of Solo: A Star Wars Story over the same Memorial Day period in 2018. Solo became the first Star Wars film to make a loss, grossing only $393 million worldwide during its theatrical run. Theaters take approximately half of this, giving a sense of the loss.
The headlines write themselves; this is, after all, the lowest box office opening in Star Wars history. But the comparison isn’t necessarily a fair one, because – according to tax returns filed in California – The Mandalorian and Grogu has a reported budget of just $165 million. This information is incomplete, because post-production likely wasn’t conducted in California, while there have been reports marketing cost somewhere in the region of $100 million. THR reports insiders saying the film needs to make $500-600 million globally to land in the black.
In contrast, Solo was one of the most expensive movies ever made. That’s largely because of expensive reshoots after Ron Howard took over from Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, which pushed the budget up to almost $300 million. All this means the Solo comparison isn’t exactly fair on The Mandalorian and Grogu; the financials are too different. Analysts consider it too soon to say whether this film is on track to make a profit, because it depends on whether casual viewers will turn up rather than just the core fandom. The Rotten Tomatoes audience score currently sits at 88%, a positive sign.
Box Office Isn’t Quite As Important to This Star Wars Film
This is where it gets complicated: box office isn’t everything for a Star Wars film, and it certainly won’t be the only thing Disney assess. We only focus on box office because it’s a simple metric, allowing for a simple profit-and-loss calculation. It’s a fiction, because studios fudge the numbers as much as possible for tax purposes (Warner Bros. once tried to report a paper loss of over $167 million on Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix due to creative accounting). On the other hand, the idea theaters take half the box office is an oversimplification, especially in overseas markets. It’s all very back-of-the-envelope.
Meanwhile, it’s important to remember that franchise films have never really made their money from box office in the first place. That’s especially true for Star Wars, where George Lucas became a millionaire because of the merchandise rights. Solo was a disaster in part because it coincided (or, perhaps, was tied to) a drop in the value of Star Wars merchandise, reflecting a nadir for the franchise as a whole. Grogu, on the other hand, is generally seen as Star Wars’ most valuable marketing asset since the original trilogy. Star Wars toy sales spiked by an incredible 21% after his debut, and he was the brand’s most popular toy in 2021 and 2022.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is Vital to Disney+
Traditionally, merchandise has been one of two ways blockbusters have really made money. The other is distribution, and this is more complex because the film will be distributed worldwide on Disney+. Even box office bombs like Morbius tend to become streaming hits, simply because they’re now available for general release; whatever critics may say of The Mandalorian and Grogu, it’s no Morbius, and is guaranteed to be a success on streaming. As one Disney exec told THR: “Not only could it ultimately end up on the service and get tens of millions of hours of watch views, it will also have an impact on [The] Mandalorian seasons one through three.”
2025 was the year when peak streaming died, as studios, networks, and streamers finally realized the traditional model wasn’t financially viable. Now, Disney is working on new models for its own streaming service; ad tiers are part of it, but we’re also seeing less investment in MCU and Star Wars TV shows, with a focus on theatrical releases that will then hopefully become popular on the streamer. The Mandalorian and Grogu is basically a TV show that’s been evolved for the big screen, with a budget that’s been far more carefully controlled. The box office is only stage one for this film.
If The Mandalorian and Grogu successfully drives Disney+ engagement – likely encouraging viewers to go back to check previous seasons of The Mandalorian – then it will confirm we have a new model. It’s essentially a low-budget, made-for-streaming TV movie with box office attached, showing Disney the formula to follow going forward. And right now, given current performance, the Star Wars movie is on track to hit those goals. The box office isn’t quite as important as the discourse suggests.
Why Do We Care So Much About The Mandalorian and Grogu’s Performance?
We’ll never really know whether The Mandalorian and Grogu was a success. The box office is only the first real test; beyond that, streaming performance and even merchandise sales need to be factored in. But it’s worth taking a step back and asking a simple question: Why are we discussing this in the first place? It’s frankly surreal that there’s so much discourse around the box office, with even trades attempting to push a narrative. The sad truth is that, as online traffic declines due to AI, we’re moving to a place where publishers believe discourse is the only way to get attention.
Star Wars YouTubers in particular have known this for a long time. The Kathleen Kennedy era of Star Wars was characterized by constant attempts to build a narrative of Star Wars as a failed franchise, simply because this would generate discourse. It arguably peaked after The Acolyte, with the fandom tearing itself apart over questions as absurd as the age of Jedi Master Ki-Adi-Mundi after the show contradicted a non-canon CD-ROM from 1999 that even George Lucas ignored when he gave Mace Windu a purple lightsaber. Now, discourse is affecting pretty much every arena, from social media to the trades.
In truth, there’s only one metric that matters – the one George Lucas himself would have valued. He always insisted Star Wars was for kids, and the question he’d ask is simple: are the kids enjoying it? Speaking personally, every child I know who’s watched the film has loved it. One friend’s eleven-year-old was in tears when Grogu defended Din, and another ten-year-old at church was eagerly quizzing me on Mandalorians because he watched it over the weekend, already planning to see it again. We may want to quantify the film’s performance, to find a way to measure it, but it’s worked for those children. And that’s a very positive sign indeed.
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Courtesy of ENGI / Kadokawa / Sentai Filmworks
