At the outset of the summer movie season, there were a few titles that jumped out as potential future members of the $1 billion club. Among them was Disney’s live-action Moana remake. Since the original animated film premiered a decade ago, the franchise has become a lucrative property for the Mouse House, with Moana 2 breaking box office records en route to a $1.059 billion worldwide haul. However, the outlook is very different as the live-action Moana opens in theaters. The box office prognosis is quite poor, with the latest projections suggesting a $60+ million domestic opening (some are predicting even lower than that). In order to turn things around, Moana needed a strong showing from preview screenings, but that didn’t happen.
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According to Deadline, Moana grossed $4.5 million domestically from preview screenings that took place on Thursday, July 9th. That figure is slightly higher than other Disney live-action remakes like Snow White ($3.5 million) and Dumbo ($2.6 million), but this is hardly what the studio was hoping for. Moana is well below The Little Mermaid ($10.3 million), Aladdin ($7 million), and even Moana 2 ($13.8 million).
Moana Continues a Summer 2026 Box Office Trend
Deadline notes that “exhibitors pushed [opening weekend estimates] down to a high $40Ms projection.” Barring something unforeseen, this means Moana will become the latest high-profile summer release to disappoint this year. Historically, the season is when studios release big-budget tentpoles that have a lot of commercial potential, but several of those releases have underwhelmed to varying degrees. The Mandalorian and Grogu suffered a steep second weekend decline after a solid opening and couldn’t top Solo: A Star Wars Story‘s worldwide total. Masters of the Universe and Supergirl bombed. Even Minions & Monsters, which will be saved by its low production budget, failed to meet expectations over Fourth of July.
This has caused people to wonder why general audiences don’t seem to be responding to these films. There are several factors to consider (the cost of movie tickets is perhaps the biggest one), but it’s telling that many of this summer’s commercial disappointments earned mixed-to-middling reviews. These days, moviegoers are more selective about what they’ll see on the big screen, so if the Rotten Tomatoes score isn’t very high, they’re going to wait for streaming. It isn’t a coincidence that the summer’s biggest hits were widely acclaimed. The Rotten Tomatoes scores for Toy Story 5 (92%) and Obsession (94%) are much higher than The Mandalorian and Grogu (60%), Masters of the Universe (68%), and Supergirl (54%). Stronger buzz fuels ticket sales.
Word of mouth has definitely had an impact on Moana‘s box office prospects. At one point, it was targeting an opening weekend in the range of $85+ million, but that was before the reviews came in. Moana is one of the lowest-rated Disney live-action remakes, receiving a 37% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes. The consensus is that it’s little more than a flat carbon copy of the much better animated film, failing to recapture the same sense of magic and wonder that propelled 2016’s Moana to box office heights. It’s hardly considered a must-see on the big screen, especially with much better options for families still playing.
Assuming Moana‘s opening weekend is as low as the estimates indicate, it’ll be interesting to see how it influences Disney’s decisions on live-action remakes moving forward. The upcoming Lilo & Stitch sequel should be fine, as that’s following up a $1 billion hit. The Tangled remake has taken big steps forward this year, so that one will likely be safe as well. Disney has other remakes in various stages of development, like Hercules and another Maleficent films, and time will tell what becomes of those. Should Moana lose money in theaters, Disney may be forced to re-evaluate its live-action strategy and make tough decisions about projects it’s working on.
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Image courtesy of Sony Pictures
