Captain America 4 Box Office Projections Increase After Strong Opening Day

Thanks to a strong opening day, Captain America: Brave New World box office projections have improved for this weekend. According to Deadline, the latest installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is estimated to gross $40 million domestically in its first day, setting the stage for a debut of anywhere between $95-109 million over the extended four-day Presidents’ Day holiday weekend. The outlet notes that Disney is being more conservative in its own projections, estimating Brave New World will bring in $90-96 million. Either result would be the highest box office opening of 2025 so far.

This week’s other high-profile new release, Paddington in Peru, is estimated to come in a distant second with $16-17.5 million domestically over the holiday frame. The rest of the top five should be rounded out by Dog Man ($13.35 million), Heart Eyes ($11 million), and Ne Zha 2 ($7.2 million).

While the numbers haven’t shifted dramatically in one direction or the other, Captain America: Brave New World box office projections have fluctuated recently. Ahead of the film’s debut this weekend, estimates had it pegged for $80-85 million in its first three days and $90-95 million for the Presidents’ Day weekend. Those figures were slightly lower than the initial projections that came out in January. Brave New World brought in about $12 million domestically from preview screenings on Thursday, February 13th.

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Brave New World did not benefit from enthusiastic word-of-mouth, as reviews for the film were mixed. Its Rotten Tomatoes critics score is actually one of the lowest in the long history of the MCU, with some people feeling that the storytelling fell flat despite strong performances from the principal cast. That reception might have had some impact on its ticket sales.

Even the high end of Brave New World‘s opening weekend projections wouldn’t top what Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania made over Presidents’ Day weekend two years ago ($120.3 million), but that doesn’t mean Captain America 4 isn’t a commercial success. With a production budget of $180 million, Brave New World was less expensive to make than many recent Marvel movies, meaning it’s in solid position to turn a nice profit. Not only is it 2025’s first major studio tentpole, it arguably won’t face much direct competition until Snow White opens in March. That gives it an extended runway to run relatively unopposed, though there still will be some interesting projects — like Bong Joon-ho’s Mickey 17 — debuting during that time.

It will be interesting to see how Captain America: Brave New World holds in its second weekend. As Dog Man can attest, a strong opening does not equate to strong legs at the box office. Like most studio blockbusters, Marvel films tend to be front-loaded, doing major business in the first weekend as they capitalize on hype from fans. The lack of overwhelming excitement surrounding Brave New World suggests the movie could see a significant decrease next weekend, and while it shouldn’t be in any danger of bombing, that wouldn’t be the ideal result for Marvel as it starts to lay the foundation for the next Avengers movies. Still, with no new notable releases on the horizon, Brave New World will hopefully remain a draw and set the MCU up for a fruitful 2025.