Oscars: Predicting the 2025 Best Picture Winner

We’ve reached the end of another awards season, with the 97th Academy Awards arriving to crown the best in Hollywood’s achievements last year. Now that all of the notable precursors have been handed out, the biggest question left to answer is which film will take home the top prize at the Oscars. Unlike last year, when Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer dominated the race from the jump, this year’s Best Picture winner hasn’t been as easy to predict. The 10 films nominated all have their fair share of supporters, and at various times during the season, there were different perceived frontrunners. However, now that the dust has settled, there’s one film that seems to be ahead of the pack.

The odds favor Sean Baker’s Anora, the twisted love story about a stripper who gets involved with the son of a Russian oligarch. But it’s not a foregone conclusion it will win Best Picture. There’s still one nominee that could garner enough support to pull off a major upset.

Why Anora Is the Best Picture Favorite

Anora announced itself as a key player on the awards circuit by winning the Palme d’Or at the 2024 Cannes Film Festival and it’s lived up to the hype. Baker’s film has earned a plethora of notable accolades over the course of the awards race, including major wins at the Writers Guild Awards, Directors Guild Awards, and Producers Guild Awards. That last one is arguably the most pertinent. Historically, the PGA’s Best Theatrical Motion Picture award has considerable overlap with Best Picture at the Oscars. Since the award was first handed out in 1989, the PGA and Academy have aligned 25 times. While there have been a few recent deviations, PGA remains one of the strongest predictors for Best Picture.

Furthermore, the trio of notable guild awards illustrates that Anora has widespread support across the industry, which is vital. The only time a movie won at the WGA, DGA, and PGA and lost Best Picture was Brokeback Mountain in one of the Academy’s most controversial decisions ever. Anora is also the presumptive favorite in the Best Director and Best Original Screenplay categories, which gives it a lot of momentum heading into Oscar Sunday.

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Most of Anora‘s fellow nominees have fizzled out at this juncture of the race. Emilia Pérez, the year’s most-nominated film with 13, seemed like it was destined to come out on top (even beating Anora at the Golden Globes). However, its campaign was derailed by the controversy surrounding star Karla Sofia Gascón’s old tweets, and now Zoe Saldaña in Best Supporting Actress is its sole best chance for a win. The Brutalist constantly came up short at the guild awards, with even Best Actor favorite Adrien Brody losing at the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown only has a realistic shot in Best Actor, where Timothée Chalamet could win.

Box office hits Dune: Part Two and Wicked will most likely have to settle for wins in the tech categories; the former is arguably more notable for its significant snubs (Denis Villeneuve missing a Best Director nomination). And while The Substance represents a major step for horror representation at the Oscars, its best chance for a win is Demi Moore in Best Actress. Though Anora appears to have an edge over the rest of the field, there is one title still in the running.

Could Conclave Pull Off a Best Picture Upset?

Edward Berger’s Conclave, the acclaimed drama about the election of a new pope, seems to be Anora‘s biggest challenger for Best Picture. The film has racked up some impressive accolades of its own, receiving Best Film at the BAFTA Awards and Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at SAG. That SAG win is notable; while there isn’t as much correlation between SAG and the Oscars when compared to PGA, 15 of the previous 30 SAG winners also took home Best Picture (including the last three years). It also illustrates that Conclave has sizable support within the acting branch, which is the largest branch in the Academy. This could play a role in Best Picture voting.

Best Picture is decided by a preferential ballot, which means Academy members vote by ranking the 10 films in order of preference. Under this system, second-and-third-place votes are arguably more important than first-place votes. After the first round of tallying is complete, ballots are redistributed if their top choice for Best Picture has been eliminated. For instance, if someone votes for Dune: Part Two and that film is removed from contention following the first count, that ballot then goes to whichever film is listed second. If that same person placed Anora second on their ranking, the ballot becomes a vote for Anora.

This system could benefit a film like Conclave, a well-liked movie from a respected director, featuring a cast full of people the industry loves. Even if it doesn’t get the most first-place votes, it seems like an easy choice for most people’s second-and-third-place vote. The race could conceivably be decided by how strong Anora performs during the first tally. If it gets out to a sizable lead, the gap might be too big for another film to close. If Anora doesn’t surge out ahead, the door is open for Conclave.

Of course, preferential balloting could favor Anora, which is also very well-liked and obviously has a lot of fans within the industry. It’s extremely plausible it will secure several of those key second-and-third-place votes, which would probably be more than enough to give it Best Picture. For this reason, plus its strong performance at the guild awards, our pick to win the Academy’s top prize is Anora.

The 2025 Oscars will air on ABC and stream live on Hulu and YouTube TV on Sunday, March 3rd at 7 p.m. ET.

What do you think will win Best Picture? Let us know in the comments below!