Theater owners didn’t have too much to celebrate during October. With the exception of special limited events like Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl or this weekends’ re-release of Netflix sensation Kpop Demon Hunters, there weren’t many major box office draws this month. Several of the new releases underwhelmed, as The Smashing Machine scored Dwayne Johnson’s lowest career opening and Tron: Ares effectively killed Disney’s sci-fi franchise. After a rough few weeks, there’s hope for greener pastures in November and December to end 2025 on a high note. One of the biggest releases on the horizon is Wicked: For Good, which is poised to give the box office a much-needed shot in the arm.
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According to Deadline, initial projections for Wicked: For Good have it estimated to earn between $112-115 million domestically during its opening weekend. That figure would be in line with how the first Wicked performed last year ($112.5 million) It would also give Wicked: For Good one of the biggest debuts of the year so far; the fantasy musical would crack the top five of 2025’s highest-grossing opening weekends:
- A Minecraft Movie ($162.7 million)
- Lilo & Stitch ($146 million)
- Superman ($125 million)
- The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($117.6 million)
- Wicked: For Good ($112-115 million projection)
Can Wicked: For Good Exceed Box Office Projections?
As an illustration of how tricky it can be to predict the box office in this post-pandemic landscape (moviegoing habits have changed a lot over the past handful of years), a number of releases this year actually surpassed their initial estimates and fared better than expected. This trend was most prevalent in the horror genre (Sinners, Weapons, The Conjuring: Last Rites, and more scored massive debuts), but other types of films beat the projections as well. Few had A Minecraft Movie setting records, and Superman rode positive buzz to a strong opening.
Wicked: For Good could certainly join those ranks. As the grand conclusion to an epic, beloved story, it will be one of the biggest cinematic events of the holiday season. The Conjuring: Last Rites just demonstrated the added value of billing a film as a finale, making it more of a must-see on the big screen. Additionally, word of mouth for Wicked: For Good is already strong. Earlier this week, initial reactions circulated on social media, with many people praising the performances from stars Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande, and director Jon M. Chu’s ability to bring the narrative to a satisfying end. Assuming the full written reviews are just as enthusiastic, Wicked: For Good could be an even bigger hit than anticipated.
Last year, Wicked went head to head with Gladiator II at the box office. While the two films were targeting very different audiences, they were still a pair of high-profile releases competing against each other for ticket sales. This time around, Wicked: For Good faces no such competition. There’s nothing on the scale of Gladiator II opening against it; Rental Family and Sisu: Road to Revenge are more counterprogramming options that shouldn’t make a huge dent. Disney’s Zootopia 2 opens over Thanksgiving, but after the first Wicked was able to coexist with Moana 2, there’s little reason to believe that can’t happen again. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Wicked: For Good outpace expectations.
Besides Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2, November also sees the premieres of anticipated titles like Predator: Badlands (which is earning positive reactions of its own) and Edgar Wright’s The Running Man, so the month is shaping up to be far more fruitful than October. That’ll come as a relief to theater owners, setting the table nicely for Avatar: Fire and Ash over the always-lucrative Christmas window. The last two months of 2025 could deliver some of the highest-grossing movies of the year.
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Courtesy of Toei Animation
