Predator: Badlands exceeding projections a couple of weeks ago gave theater owners some much-needed box office relief after a historically low October, but this weekend was the one the film industry had circled for the big box office comeback. Arriving just in time for Thanksgiving is the fantasy musical Wicked: For Good, the epic follow-up to last year’s mega hit. It’s long been expected that Wicked: For Good will be one of the biggest hits of the year, replicating its predecessor’s success. The only question was how high could it go in its opening weekend. Projections have increased after For Good broke a Fandango pre-sales record, and now it’s made more history in just one night.
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According to Variety, Wicked: For Good earned $30.8 million domestically from various preview screenings. These include not just standard advanced showings of the film that took place on Thursday, but also early screenings on Monday for Amazon Prime subscribers and double features of the two Wicked films. Wicked: For Good posted the biggest preview haul of the year so far, easily topping the $22.5 million earned by Superman over the summer.
Can Wicked: For Good Score the Year’s Biggest Box Office Opening?
A few weeks ago, initial estimates for Wicked: For Good indicated it would earn between $112-115 million in its opening weekend. That figure has now increased substantially to $150-180 million, meaning Wicked: For Good has a chance to post 2025’s highest opening weekend. Right now, A Minecraft Movie has the year’s top debut with $162 million. It’s proven tricky to accurately predict For Good‘s box office due to the high number of pre-sales, which have skewed calculations. There’s a chance the pre-sales make Wicked: For Good very front-loaded in its opening weekend, mirroring what happened with Wicked last year. At one point, the first film was projected to open with $120 million, but it ended up with $112.5 million.
Preview screenings are not necessarily indicative of how much a movie will earn over its full opening weekend. Case in point: A Minecraft Movie grossed $10.6 million from its previews, a figure well under Superman. Based on that number alone, nobody could have predicted that A Minecraft Movie would earn over $160 million in three days. Whether or not Wicked: For Good beats Minecraft could come down to how it performs on Saturday and Sunday. As a highly anticipated film with a large, built-in fan base, Wicked: For Good was always going to have an extremely lucrative opening night/day. It would have been more surprising to see it underwhelm in preview screenings.
An interesting wrinkle here is word of mouth. While Wicked: For Good reviews are mostly positive, they aren’t as enthusiastic as the first film’s (the Rotten Tomatoes score is 70%, compared to 88% for the first Wicked). The general consensus seems to be that though For Good features strong performances and standout musical numbers, it doesn’t reach the same heights as its predecessor. Clearly, this critical reception is not going to have a sizable impact on the film’s box office, but it could have some effect. Box office records fall because a movie is able to transcend its target audience and appeal to a wider group of people. Casual viewers who are more on the fence about seeing For Good in theaters could opt to wait based on the review scores.
Still, the reviews aren’t bad enough to scare moviegoers away. Plus, Wicked: For Good should get a boost due to it being the conclusion. As we saw with the record-breaking The Conjuring: Last Rites, billing a movie as the end to its series is a great way to drive up business. Reviews for Last Rites were far more mixed than the Wicked reviews as well, so these types of movies might just be critic-proof. Even if Wicked: For Good doesn’t surpass A Minecraft Movie, Universal and theater owners will have plenty to celebrate this weekend as the holiday season gets off to a strong start.
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