Box office projections for A Minecraft Movie indicate the movie could be a much-needed win for Warner Bros. According to Deadline, the video game adaptation is estimated to gross around $65 million domestically over its opening weekend. That figure would be slightly higher than last December’s Sonic the Hedgehog 3, which earned $60.1 million in the U.S. over its pre-Christmas debut. A Minecraft Movie is also pegged to earn another $65 million from international markets, which would put it on track for about $130 million worldwide. There’s a chance the movie’s debut could be as high as $140 million globally depending on how things pan out.
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If these estimates hold, A Minecraft Movie would score the second-largest domestic box office debut of the year. Only Captain America: Brave New World ($88.8 million), which premiered back in February, had a larger opening. A Minecraft Movie‘s opening weekend is poised to be considerably higher than last month’s Snow White, which earned $42 million in its debut.
An adaptation of the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie opens in theaters on April 4th. The film’s marketing campaign has highlighted the main theme of creativity, with trailers highlighting how the characters can conjure up anything from their imagination in the world. Promotional materials have also highlighted the star power of Jack Black and Jason Momoa, showcasing their comedic chops to help sell the film.
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A Minecraft Movie is arriving at a time when Warner Bros. really needs a hit. The studio is in a tough spot right now due to several box office bombs, including last month’s Mickey 17 and The Alto Knights. However, WB got some more good news on the box office front recently when estimates for Ryan Coogler’s Sinners pointed to a healthy opening.
If A Minecraft Movie earns as much as $140 million worldwide in its opening weekend, that would be a great start. Deadline notes that the film’s production budget is $150 million, so Warner Bros. would be well on its way to making back its investment. A Minecraft Movie is also in a position where it could have decent legs over the first few weeks of its theatrical run. There isn’t anything else targeting its main demographic (families) opening for the rest of April. A Minecraft Movie will be able to corner that part of the market until Thunderbolts* kicks off the summer movie season in early May. Minecraft isn’t going to top The Super Mario Bros. Movie‘s opening ($146.3 million in April 2023), but it’s refreshing to see a WB release that isn’t projected to bomb.
It’s too early to tell if A Minecraft Movie will be successful enough to spawn a franchise, but if nothing else, these numbers should start to assuage concerns about Warner Bros.’ future as a studio. In the wake of those aforementioned box office bombs, reports indicated that if James Gunn’s Superman falls short of expectations, WB could be sold off a la Fox. Obviously, Superman being successful is still a must for WB, but it would be better for everyone involved if Gunn’s film didn’t determine the fate of WB as a whole. A Minecraft Movie being a hit would be the first step towards getting to that place.
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