Avatar: Fire and Ash Thursday Box Office Matches Infamous MCU Flop

After Wicked: For Good and Zootopia 2 helped the box office rebound after a rough October, there was one more high-profile blockbuster on deck for the holiday season. This weekend sees the release of James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash, the third installment in the director’s massively successful sci-fi franchise. The first two Avatar movies are members of the rare $2 billion worldwide club, so the expectation has been Fire and Ash will be one of the highest-grossing films of the year. Still, its premiere marks something of a test for the IP, as some are curious to see how Fire and Ash will fare just three short years after Avatar: The Way of Water.

According to Variety, Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $12 million domestically from preview screenings that took place on Thursday, December 18th. This figure is the same as what Marvel’s Captain America: Brave New World grossed from its preview screenings back in February. Fire and Ash‘s numbers are below The Way of Water, which made $17 million from preview screenings.

What Avatar: Fire and Ash‘s Thursday Box Office Means for Its Opening Weekend

Heading into the weekend, projections for Fire and Ash indicated it would earn between $90-105 million domestically, a debut lower than The Way of Water‘s opening. Seeing these Thursday numbers might make some worry that Fire and Ash could end up below those estimates, but this franchise has never been the biggest draw on preview screenings. The Way of Water‘s haul of $17 million is below the likes of Wicked: For Good ($30.8 million) and Superman ($22.5 million), but it still ended up grossing $134.1 million domestically in its first weekend, higher than that of Superman ($125 million) and The Fantastic Four: First Steps ($117.6 million).

This is all to say, Thursday preview screening grosses are not the end all be all when forecasting a film’s opening weekend. About a month ago, Predator: Badlands scored $4.8 million from preview screenings, but it broke box office records over the full weekend en route to becoming the Predator franchise’s biggest hit yet. Just because Avatar: Fire and Ash is lagging behind after preview screenings doesn’t mean things are doomed. It’s also important to keep in mind that this series has never been synonymous with massive, record-breaking debuts. The previous two Avatar movies were fueled by lengthy theatrical runs supported by strong legs. That’s Fire and Ash‘s path to $2 billion.

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The $12 million Thursday haul isn’t cause for concern, but it also isn’t ideal. The Avatar movies are exceptionally expensive endeavors, and Fire and Ash is no exception. Its reported production budget is in excess of $400 million, meaning the film needs to gross a substantial amount of money just to break even. The Thursday performance combined with the full weekend estimates illustrate that general audiences could be losing some interest in the franchise and feeling a sense of fatigue. This is why Cameron is keeping a close eye on Fire and Ash‘s box office numbers before committing to Avatar 4 and Avatar 5.

It’ll be interesting to see how Fire and Ash fares over the rest of the weekend. Reviews are largely positive, but the Fire and Ash Rotten Tomatoes score is the lowest of the franchise (ending Cameron’s Certified Fresh streak that dates back to The Terminator). Word of mouth can have some influence over whether or not people go to the theater. Avatar is obviously a film series that benefits greatly from the big-screen theatrical experience, so waiting to watch it at home won’t give you the same effect. However, if there are moviegoers on the fence balking at Fire and Ash‘s 3 hour, 15 minute run time, the lukewarm nature of some of the reviews could convince them to stay away.

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