Did the Billion-Dollar Box Office Peak in 2019?

Clearing the $1-billion box office threshold is the crowning achievement of any major blockbuster, but it may be time to accept that it no longer happens with the kind of regularity that it once did. Looking back just a few years, it’s downright stunning how many new theatrical releases were able to surpass the $1-billion mark in worldwide box office earnings, but if you’ve followed box office news recently, that number has dropped precipitously in a relatively short timeframe. With the colossal box office success of Warner Bros. new video game movie hit A Minecraft Movie (which has earned more than $800 million worldwide as of this writing), there is speculation that it might soon join the $1-billion club, but the context of the box office in the last six years makes clear that A Minecraft Movie failing to hit that mark would not be anything resembling a financial disappointment.

The real pivot point in dissecting contemporary box office trends is the year 2019. As the last calendar year before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, 2019 was also the last year with a surplus of movies amassing $1 billion or more at the worldwide box office. Looking back on 2019 and examining other factors that have arisen since then, it is not only arguable that $1-billion box office potential peaked in 2019, but that $1-billion expectations need to be increasingly kept in check, and even retired outright.

Comparing 2019’s $1-Billion Hits to the Ones That Have Come Since

Before the dawn of the 21st century, the idea of any one movie being popular enough to earn $1 billion at the box office seemed like a one-off miracle that only James Cameron could pull off with 1997’s Titanic, the first movie ever to hit the $1-billion mark. By the 2010s and with such hits as The Dark Knight, Avatar, The Avengers, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, Furious 7, and Jurassic World, punching through the $1-billion barrier was increasingly commonplace with the right franchise, director, or ensemble cast attached. Moreover, studios began to chase to chase after $1-billion grand slams with more and more fervor, with budgets on guaranteed hits ballooning to well past $300 million a pop (a price tag that would’ve looked financially suicidal in the days when Waterworld made headlines with its now moderate-seeming $175 million budget).

2019 was the year that the $1-billion club was throwing its biggest party ever. In that year alone, of the ten biggest box office earners, nine surpassed $1 billion — namely The Lion King, Frozen 2, Spider-Man: Far From Home, Captain Marvel, Joker, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker, Toy Story 4, Aladdin, and the year’s biggest hit, Avengers: Endgame, which pulled in an astounding $2.79 billion and briefly held the title of box office champ until James Cameron’s Avatar later reclaimed it with a theatrical re-release. Adding to 2019’s box office windfall, the 10th biggest earner, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, also earned an impressive $801 million worldwide. Then came the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and since then, the $1-billion club looks to be a far more exclusive party than ever before.

In the five years since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, there have been a total of 10 movies to earn $1 billion or more worldwide — namely, Spider-Man: No Way Home, Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: The Way of Water, Jurassic World: Dominion, Barbie, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Inside Out 2, Deadpool & Wolverine, Moana 2, and Ne Zha 2. To be sure, there have been some “so close yet so far” $900-million-plus hits in that time, like The Battle at Lake Changjin, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness, Minions: The Rise of Gru, and Oppenheimer. However, when it has taken half a decade for the total number of $1 billion earners to exceed the number seen in the last pre-COVID calendar year, it should be more than obvious that something, and more to the point, a lot of things, have changed about theatrical moviegoing in that timeframe.

RELATED: Predicting the Biggest Movies at the Box Office in 2025

The Box Office (and Streaming) Landscape Is Completely Different Post-COVID

The economic impact of COVID was felt worldwide, and the film industry might be a perfect microcosm of that in how different the theatrical landscape looks since. For those who value the theatrical experience, it is certainly a relief that theaters have survived into the post-COVID world, but their business model is also markedly different in several key ways, starting with the turnaround time from theaters to streaming. Within the past two years, it has been anything but uncommon for newly released movies, big and small, to be made available for digital rental and purchase as soon as a month to even a once unthinkable two weeks after their theatrical debuts, sometimes with the movie itself even still playing theatrically in relatively wide release. One could argue this disincentivizes audiences from seeing new releases in theaters at all, but it’s just as arguable that both audiences and Hollywood are following the money.

From the perspective of moviegoers heading out to theaters, weighing the economics of a night at their local multiplex is more complicated than ever. Depending on their economic situation and whether they’re bringing spouses, significant others, or children to the theater, a night at the movies could end up running in excess of $100 when tickets and concessions are all factored in (and that’s if the popcorn is only in a standard bag, as opposed to whether one can be persuaded into buying one of the specialty popcorn buckets modeled on new releases that are increasingly sold in theaters). Some theaters make it a bit easier for families and groups to plan for a movie night with premium subscription memberships with the theater chain, such as AMC’s A-List membership that grants numerous free movies per week. However, in terms of being a frequent moviegoer, the economics of that are still a lot more cost-effective for a single person compared to a family of four who can easily burn through a week’s freebies in one trip.

Meanwhile, the lockdowns and restrictions of the COVID era didn’t merely teach moviegoers how to stream, but how to wait to stream. With numerous movies released in early 2020 forced to drop onto streaming early due to the onset of the pandemic, and other practices like Warner Bros. streaming-theatrical hybrid release model for their entire 2021 slate, it hasn’t taken long for audiences (especially younger ones) to grow accustomed to the idea of seeing a new release for the first time in their own home. By the same token, Hollywood themselves have seemingly taken notice of that practice, as evidenced by the increasing frequency of new releases being available on PVOD platforms within two to four weeks of their theatrical releases. In turn, this also accelerates the pace at which a new release can be made available on a given studio’s own subscription-based streaming service, such as Disney+, Max, or Paramount+, and can then be leveraged into a subscription-revenue driver for the studio. With studios having the added incentive of dividing less of their revenue on a given movie on PVOD, or not at all on their own streaming services, compared to the revenue split with theaters, the economics of moviegoing in the post-COVID world have snowballed into streaming options having a far greater financial benefit to studios and moviegoers alike compared to theatrical moviegoing.

Is It Time to Modify $1 Billion Expectations? The Post-COVID Math Says Yes

None of the above is to say that movie theaters are or should become obsolete in the film industry’s business model, but the context of their function is evolving into one where prestige for new releases and a kind of “get the most bang for your buck” experience for audiences in terms of experiencing big blockbusters on the largest scale and screen possible are the main function theaters are beginning to serve. While that new paradigm shift will no doubt continue to evolve the movie theater business into a different kind of revenue pillar for the film industry compared to their pre-COVID role in the business, one new reality that must be understood is that the $1-billion benchmark needs to be retired as a barometer for the highest bar of theatrical success (to the extent that it ever should have been such a benchmark in the first place).

Yes, the ten $1-billion hits post-COVID make clear that hitting that mark is certainly not off the table, but it also needs to be recontextualized within the economic framework of how much audiences have adapted since the pandemic and how much studios have had to adapt in turn. Back in 2016, landing more in the $800-million range could be spun as a genuine financial disappointment with the $1-billion finish line in view. Fast-forward to 2025, and movie studios (and movie punditry) should instead look at the $1-billion mark more along the lines of “great if it happens, but by no means a letdown if it doesn’t.” At the phenomenal rate of box office success it has enjoyed, A Minecraft Movie could conceivably cross the $1-billion finish line. With that said, if it merely tops out at $990 million, it’s still a monumental box office success given just how much the box office itself has changed since the world was making its way through the COVID era.

A Minecraft Movie is currently playing in theaters.