Unexpected Adaptation Set to Break 2025 Box Office Record This Weekend

Dog Man is projected to give the 2025 box office a shot in the arm by posting the biggest opening for a new release this year. According to Deadline, the film is estimated to win the weekend with a haul that exceeds $20 million. That figure would be substantially higher than 2025’s other box office champions. Just last week, Mel Gibson’s Flight Risk earned the No. 1 spot with an $11.5 million debut. Action sequel Den of Thieves 2: Pantera grossed $15 million in its first three days. Some 2025 releases failed to top the charts; Wolf Man struggled with just a $10.8 million debut.

This weekend’s other new arrival, horror film Companion, isn’t expected to give Dog Man a run for its money. Estimates peg Companion grossing somewhere between $8-10 million domestically over its first three days.

An adaptation of author Dav Pilkey’s popular comic series of the same name, Dog Man has been in development since 2020. It wasn’t until last year that the project was officially announced, receiving its January 2025 release date. As evidenced by the Dog Man trailer, the story chronicles the adventures of the titular character, a dog/human hybrid who fights crime, coming to blows with Petey the Cat.

[RELATED – Before Dog Man, Check Out This Underrated Dav Pilkey Adaptation]

So far, holdovers from the 2024 holiday season have mostly controlled the January box office. Mufasa: The Lion King rebounded from its poor opening, winning two weekends this month (including the Martin Luther King Day holiday frame). Elsewhere, Moana 2 and Sonic the Hedgehog 3 have taken advantage of weak competition to cross significant box office milestones in January.

Should these estimates hold, Dog Man could perform similarly to another Pilkey adaptation; 2017’s Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie grossed $23.8 million in its debut. There’s a chance Dog Man might surpass that number if it reaches the higher end of its projections. While the film isn’t going to break any all-time January records, Universal was smart to place Dog Man in this window. Arriving in theaters far removed from the holiday rush, it should be in a good place to succeed. There’s been a gap in the schedule for family-friendly releases, and the IP’s built-in following makes it an appealing option for the target demographic. Paddington in Peru is right around the corner, but that franchise has always been more of a draw overseas than in the States.

Of course, Dog Man won’t hold the title of 2025’s biggest box office opening for long. Even if next week’s Love Hurts doesn’t topple Dog Man‘s mark, Captain America: Brave New World opens in mid-February. The anticipated Marvel Cinematic Universe sequel is expected to be a sizable draw, with projections pointing to a debut of over $90 million. That’s the major release theater owners are waiting for, but it’s nice to see there will be at least one decent hit coming out in between. January, which can be a box office dumping ground, got off to a rough start, but Dog Man will be a nice boost.