Since pivoting back to theatrical releases a handful of years ago, Pixar has seen its fair share of ups and downs at the box office. Lightyear and Elio became the rare Pixar titles to bomb, with the latter posting the lowest opening in the studio’s lengthy history. On the flip side, Inside Out 2 was a massive success, raking in $1.6 billion worldwide. After Hoppers was a step in the right direction earlier this year (scoring the biggest debut for an original animated movie since 2017), Pixar is hoping another trip to the sequel well can deliver bonafide blockbuster results. This weekend sees the release of the highly anticipated Toy Story 5, and it’s shaping up to be one of the biggest draws of the summer.
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According to Variety, Toy Story 5 is projected to earn somewhere between $145-150 million domestically during its opening weekend. Some believe the debut could be as high as $160-175 million. Either way, Toy Story 5 would score the largest opening in franchise history by a considerable margin. To see how its estimated gross compares to the previous installments, check out the table in the space below:
| Movie | Opening Weekend (Domestic) |
| Toy Story 5 | $145-150 million (projected) |
| Toy Story 4 | $120.9 million |
| Toy Story 3 | $110.3 million |
| Lightyear | $50.5 million |
| Toy Story 2 | $80.1 million (Thanksgiving 5-day) |
| Toy Story | $39 million (Thanksgiving 5-day) |
Can Toy Story 5 Exceed Box Office Projections?
Even the low end of Toy Story 5 estimates would be enough to surpass The Super Mario Galaxy Movie ($131.7 million) as the biggest opening weekend of the year thus far. The numbers for Mario are somewhat skewed because that film opened on a Wednesday ahead of the Easter holiday. It made $207.6 million domestically over its first five days, so Toy Story 5 isn’t entirely an apples-to-apples comparison. Still, Pixar’s latest should score a very impressive debut, and it’s worth wondering if it will be able to exceed even the rosiest of projections. Could it hit $175 million or even more?
One thing working in Toy Story 5‘s favor is that it’s benefited from incredibly strong word of mouth. While the sequel debuted with the lowest Rotten Tomatoes score of any mainline Toy Story movie, its mark is still an extremely high 94% (with 124 reviews submitted as of this writing). That’s a testament to how consistently great the series has been. The reviews have made it clear that Toy Story 5 is worth checking out in theaters, and the combination of that reception with long-standing love for the franchise will fuel a very fruitful weekend at the box office.
Toy Story 5 is also arriving at a time where there isn’t much competition for a summer tentpole at the box office. While animated movies primarily target families and young children, Toy Story‘s appeal goes beyond that because the franchise dates back to the ’90s. The Toy Story fan base is cross-generational, meaning everyone from parents with kids to nostalgic millennials will be buying tickets. This summer’s previous attempts at a four-quadrant blockbuster, like The Mandalorian and Grogu and Masters of the Universe, faltered with soft performances. If there’s an appetite for an old-school summer movie, Toy Story 5 will be a huge draw.
Whether or not Toy Story 5 surpasses its lofty projections, these estimates illustrate why Pixar is investing in sequels moving forward. Original movies have been more of a mixed bag over the past handful of years (even Hoppers finished middle of the pack on Pixar’s all-time box office chart), but follow-ups are poised to break records. Looking ahead, Pixar has the likes of Incredibles 3, Coco 2, and a new Monsters, Inc. on the way, which should all be successful as well. It would be great if Pixar’s originals got back to posting huge numbers (maybe next year’s Gatto will make progress there), but Disney will be happy with the way Pixar sequels are faring.
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