A year after he experienced a career renaissance with Iron Man, Robert Downey Jr. became the face of another action blockbuster franchise when he headlined Guy Ritchie’s Sherlock Holmes. Despite opening shortly after Avatar, the film more than held its own at the box office, earning $524 million worldwide. A sequel, 2011’s Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows was quickly greenlit, but the series has been on ice ever since. For more than a decade, there’s been talk of a Sherlock Holmes 3 (which was dated to release on Christmas 2020 at one point, believe it or not) but the threequel has obviously not come to fruition. At long last, it’s taken a step forward, but there’s still work to be done.
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In an interview with The Direct, The Westies co-creator and showrunner Chris Brancato shared that he has completed a draft of the Sherlock Holmes 3 script, but he is unsure when the movie will actually happen. “Well, I don’t know, that’s up to the movie gods. Also, Robert’s schedule,” he said. “Robert has a very, very busy schedule, so I’m hopeful that it will get made. But you know, we have to wait and see how things shake out. You just never know with movies.”
When Could Sherlock Holmes 3 Be Released?
Coincidentally, Downey’s schedule is likely one of the main reasons why Sherlock Holmes 3 hasn’t been made already. Just a handful of months after A Game of Shadows premiered in December 2011, The Avengers debuted, earning positive reviews and breaking box office records. With the film’s overwhelming success, the Marvel Cinematic Universe transformed into one of the premier Hollywood franchises of the 2010s, and playing Tony Stark took up a lot of Downey’s time. Following The Avengers, Downey starred in six more MCU movies, pushing Sherlock Holmes 3 to the back burner. Now, the actor once again has more Marvel responsibilities, playing Doctor Doom in Avengers: Doomsday and Avengers: Secret Wars.
Any hopes of the ball rolling on Sherlock Holmes 3 this year are likely kaput. It’s expected that Secret Wars will begin production in the near future ahead of its December 2027 release date (Anthony Mackie previously suggested Secret Wars would film this summer). Additionally, Downey will probably also out on the press tour for Doomsday. His Doctor Doom has yet to appear in any officially released trailers, but the character was present in the preview shown at CinemaCon this year. Marvel will surely want to lean on its most bankable star to help sell Doomsday to the general public.
The earliest Sherlock Holmes could conceivably begin filming is probably some point in 2027, but even then, Downey could be required for additional photography for Secret Wars and help promote that film as well. Depending on how things play out, Downey may not be able to turn his full attention to Sherlock Holmes 3 until both Avengers films are completely in the rearview mirror. Besides Downey, there are other factors that need to work in Sherlock Holmes 3‘s favor. The film can’t happen without the involvement of Jude Law; his chemistry with Downey is a major reason why the first two films are entertaining. Everyone behind the scenes will also need to agree on the direction of the story, meaning the script could go through some revisions between now and then.
There’s also the Warner Bros./Paramount merger to consider. The first two Sherlock Holmes films were distributed by WB, which is in the process of being acquired by Paramount. It’s highly unlikely Sherlock Holmes 3 will be ready to move forward before the merger becomes official, which means whether or not the film happens will be Paramount’s call. Granted, the studio is interested in producing new franchise installments as tentpoles to prop up their film slate (see: the new Star Trek movie), so they’d likely want to be in business with a popular name like Downey. Either way, fans shouldn’t expect to see Sherlock Holmes 3 come out for another few years at least.
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